Scenarios of urbanisation in Europe – Loss of natural surface

In the EU-FP6 project PLUREL we worked with scenarios for urban development in Europe. With a colleague I summarized the major outcomes in a short factsheet for Danish practitioners – you can find it here:,-d-,02-01.aspx

As it is all in Danish, here comes a quick English summary. Based on the IPCC scenarios, well-known from climate change modelling, four scenarios were chosen and adapted to the issue of urbanisation as can be seen on the figure below. The scenarios were described in detail with storylines and then modelled with demographic and economic models, and finally with the “Regional Urban Growth” model, developed by the University of Edinburgh, to calculate their effect on land use change for the years 2005 – 2025.

For the regions in and around Denmark you can see the effect on loss of natural surface (as defined by CORINE) in the maps below. All scenarios show a clear difference in the development between Danish regions, with a higher loss of natural surfaces and a higher urbanisation around Copenhagen and East Jutland than in the rest of the country. In the B-scenarios, “Peak Oil” and “Fragmentation”, the developments are more concentrated around Copenhagen than in the A-scenarios. Still, in all scenarios artificial surface growth will outcompete population growth in Denmark. This decrease in population density and the related risk of urban sprawl will be a major challenge for spatial planning.

These and other results will be published in a book summarizing the project’s result (hopefully) very soon.

~ by landblend on 22/09/2011.

3 Responses to “Scenarios of urbanisation in Europe – Loss of natural surface”

  1. Hello! Thank you for this very interesting article! This theme is one of the many European themes which are discussed in Brussels. In fact, from October 10 to 13, is held the biggest event of the European regional policy. All photos are available on

    A source of inspiration for your further articles!

  2. […] a previous post I wrote about a short factsheet for Danish practitioners dealing with scenarios of urbanisation in […]

  3. […] regarding land-use dynamics in Europe. I presented some of the work in two pervious posts (see here and […]

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